The wind vane of the hottest excavator fails, and

2022-09-22
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"Excavator" wind vane failure? It is difficult to establish a new growth cycle

China Construction machinery information

the mystery of excavators

according to the data of China Construction Machinery Association, the sales volume of domestic excavators in February reached 14530, with a year-on-year increase of 297.65%, continuing the rapid growth trend in the second half of last year. This is the highest monthly record for excavator growth since data were available. The sales volume of excavators is the leading indicator of earth moving machinery, and its resurgence also indicates the growth of sales volume of cranes, bulldozers, engineering vehicles, etc

in the capital market, the discussion about Pu in construction machinery enterprises, excavator concept and infrastructure sector concept stocks often touched on the significant rise of silicone. Behind the rise, there are not only factors for the improvement of corporate profits, but also reasons for conceptual speculation. The market is concerned about: how long can this rise last, and what is the investment logic of this kind of stock

over the past years, excavators have been used as a "barometer" of the economy: the growth of excavator sales means the recovery of infrastructure investment and investment growth, and even the recovery of economic growth. This time, the growth rate of excavator sales picked up, adding factors such as investment and other positive data. Some people in the market believe that the economy will start a new boom cycle

excavator sales in recent years

however, we see that the investment in fixed assets has been close to 80% of GDP, and the efficiency of investment in driving economic growth is decreasing. What is more worrying is that the monthly consumption growth rate has fallen to 9.5%, the lowest in more than 10 years, and the endogenous driving force of economic growth is not strong. Therefore, the growth of excavator sales does not mean that the economy is stable in an all-round way. Only by promoting the supply side structural reform can we build the foundation for China's medium and long-term economic growth

this means that the situation of excavators as a "barometer" of the economy over the past years may change, that is, the current excavator sales only reflect the acceleration of infrastructure investment, but do not substantially reflect the overall stability of the economy, let alone enter a new cycle of overall growth

behind the crazy sales of excavators, is the new economic cycle coming

"some of the different construction machinery are sold fast, while others are slow. Excavators are the fastest sellers." On March 23, Lu Ying, director of the statistical information department of China Construction Machinery Industry Association, said about the current sales of construction machinery

according to his analysis, the current sales of construction machinery are relatively good, but there is a big gap between different categories. The monthly sales growth rate of excavators is close to 200% year-on-year, but the growth rate of cranes is only 132%, while the growth rate of road rollers is less than 100%, and the growth rate of pavers is only 50%

it is not only the uneven sales of construction machinery, but also "ice and fire coexist" in all machinery industries and industrial fields

for example, the growth rate of industries above Designated Size nationwide was 6.3% in September, 0.3 percentage points faster than that in December last year. However, the output of steel, coal, power equipment, crude oil, cloth, etc. is low, and the output of crude oil is even negative

in September, when the growth rate of industry, investment and exports increased month on month, the driving force of economic growth was still relatively weak. For example, the growth rate of retail sales of social consumer goods in the first two months was 9.5%, the lowest in more than 10 years. At the same time, the total investment of new projects started this month is planned to be 2013billion yuan, down 8.3%, and the follow-up investment is facing the problem of insufficient projects

this means that the situation of excavators as a "barometer" of the economy over the past years may change, that is, the current excavator sales only reflect the acceleration of infrastructure investment, but do not substantially reflect the overall stability of the economy, let alone enter a new cycle of overall growth

Pan Jiancheng, deputy director of the information prosperity Center of the National Bureau of statistics, pointed out that the current economy has only continued the state of slow stabilization and slight increase since the fourth quarter of last year, which does not mean that the future economy will be upward. At present, it is only a phased recovery of growth

there are still some uncertain factors in the future economy, such as the adverse impact of the new trade policy of the United States on China's foreign trade. "The decline in automobile consumption will also lead to the decline in the benefits of some related industries and fields. The upgrading of real estate regulation will also bring new variables to real estate investment." Pan Jiancheng said

"excavator" weathervane

it is reported that in the past, when the growth rate of excavator sales accelerated, the probability of infrastructure investment accelerated, which accelerated investment, and then rapidly boosted economic growth

wind data shows that from 2000 to 2003, the year-on-year growth rate of excavator sales increased from 32.36% to 72.4% year by year. The corresponding infrastructure investment and investment growth rate increased overall, and the economic growth rate also increased: the GDP growth rate in 2000 was 8.5%, and it reached 10% in 2003

the year-on-year growth rate of excavator sales in 2007 was 51.09%, and the economic growth rate reached 14.2% in the same period. This economic growth rate is the highest since 2000

however, the increase in excavator sales in recent years seems to have lost its significance as an economic vane

for example, in 2016, the sales of excavators increased by 16.2% year-on-year, significantly higher than the -41.38% growth rate of the previous year. This has changed the growth rate of infrastructure investment from 17.29% in 2015 to 17.4% in 2016, but the investment growth rate has not significantly increased: the investment growth rate in 2016 was 8.1%, lower than 10% in 2015, and the economic growth rate also decreased slightly

why is the significance of excavator as an economic vane weakening? Yuan Gangming, a researcher at the China and world economic research center of Tsinghua University, pointed out that this is because of the excavator fire, which does not necessarily reflect that the construction will continue

"if many projects don't start, the land will be recovered. In addition, if the construction starts, the central supporting funds can be obtained. Now the infrastructure investment is very fast, and many enterprises may want to look like construction, but whether they really continue the construction needs to be observed." He said

at present, investment has indeed accelerated.

in 2017, the national fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) was 4137.8 billion yuan, an increase of 8.9% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.8 percentage points higher than that of last year. Among them, the infrastructure investment was 831.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 27.3%, and the growth rate was 9.9 percentage points higher than that of last year

but the investment funds are tight. The paid in capital of fixed asset investment in September was 5457.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8%, and an increase of 5.8% for the whole year last year. This means that there is a possibility of downward investment growth in the future. This also shows that whether the infrastructure boom reflected by excavators can drive the investment boom needs to be observed

Tang Jianwei, senior Macro Analyst of Bank of communications, believes that the growth of excavator sales is mainly matched with the growth rate of infrastructure investment. The investment growth rate has increased, but our consumption growth rate has come down. "This reflects the short-term recovery of our economy, but the structure has deteriorated." He said

data show that the growth rate of per capita disposable income of Chinese residents in 2016 was 6.3%, 0.4 percentage points lower than the growth rate of GDP. The retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 9.5% this month, hitting a new low for more than 10 years

the investment pull effect decreases

from the historical data, China's economy has an economic cycle every few years

for example, the economic growth rate was 5.1% in 1981, and reached 15.1% in 1984. The economic growth rate was 3.9% in 1990 and 14.2% in 1992. The economic growth rate was 7.7% in 1999 and 14.2% in 2007

however, the economic growth rate continued to slow down in the nine years from 2007 to 2016. The economic growth rate in 2016 was 6.7%. At present, there is no sign of a sharp rebound in the economy

the National Bureau of statistics will release the first quarter data in mid April. Many experts believe that the economic growth rate in the first quarter may be 6.8%, which is the same as that in the fourth quarter of last year

Shen Lisheng, a researcher at the Institute of quantity of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that it will be several months before the economy picks up. At present, it continues the good trend in the fourth quarter of last year, but we should be cautious when we say that the economy has entered a new cycle of accelerated growth. At present, the acceleration of the economy is still related to the acceleration of heavy industry, but the slowdown of household income growth will affect consumption. In addition, high house prices have a crowding out effect on the real economy, which are all unfavorable factors for economic development

Tang Jianwei believes that the government implemented the supply side structural reform last year, resulting in enterprises replenishing inventory this year; On the other hand, the economic recovery was driven by investment. The monthly infrastructure investment increased by more than 27%, and some large PPP projects promoted by the central and local governments began to land this year, which made the economy rebound

but this is the "old way" of investment driven and coated peek layer (PEEK) economic growth. At present, the downward pressure on the economy is still on. "It is expected that the growth rate of real estate investment will fall, which will put great downward pressure on the economic situation. In addition, the factory price of industrial producers (PPI) rose by 7.8% in February, which also put pressure on some downstream enterprises." Tang Jianwei said

it is understood that even if infrastructure investment accelerates and drives the rapid growth of the whole investment, it has been difficult to drive economic growth

data show that the ratio of total social investment to regional GDP in 2016 has exceeded 80%, but the economic growth rate is only 6.7%. The amount of investment in many provinces far exceeds GDP, but the GDP growth rate has not been significantly improved

the main reason is that the land cost in investment is high, and the amount of actually formed fixed capital is reduced. In other words, the increase in land costs actually reduces the efficiency of investment, making it difficult for the economy to grow rapidly

"China's economy has reached a certain scale and is subject to many constraints, such as resources and environment. Slowing down the growth rate within a reasonable range does not mean that it is not good. The key is to straighten out the structure and optimize the allocation. Don't relax the reform just because the short-term economic recovery, thus missing the opportunity for reform." Zuo Xiaolei, President consultant of China Galaxy Securities Co., Ltd., said

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